Friday, February 01, 2008

Spain Retail Sales December Mortages November 2007 and Inflation January 2008

Unsurprisingly the downward trend in mortgages continues. According to data from the Spanish INE, during November, the average value of contracted mortgages stood at 158,994 euros, 0.1% less than the same November 2006 and 7% less than October 2007. In the case of housing mortgages, the average value was 147,018 euros, 1.9% more than November 2006, and 2.5% less than the figure registered in October 2007.

The total value of mortgages created on urban buildings exceeded 21,300 million euros in November, representing an interannual decrease of 9.3%. In housing, the capital loaned reached almost 13,802 million euros, 13.3% less than in November 2006.

The average interest rate of savings bank mortgage loans was 4.9% and the average term was 27 years. For banks, the average interest rate for mortgage loans was 5.0% and the average term was 25 years. 98.5% of the mortgages constituted in November used a variable interest rate, as opposed to the 1.5% that used a fixed rate. Within the variables, the Euribor was the reference interest rate most used in constituting mortgages, specifically in 87.7% of new contracts.

Retail sales in Spain are now in complete retreat, and on a seasonally adjusted basis have now declined for four consecutive months.

If we look at the year on year tendency, this turned negative in December 2007 for the first time - falling by 1.9% over December 2006 - and if you look at the chart you will see that they have been losing momentum since 2006.

The HICP annual inflation rate is expected by the INE to be 4.4% in January 2008, according to the flash estimate. This estimate provides a preview of Spanish inflation which, if confirmed, implies a slight increase in the monthly annual rate, since in December this HICP was at 4.3%.

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